Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

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Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Thu May 21, 2020 10:38 am

To all my friends and colleagues and acquaintances.

Spraying about breaking the law and “exercising your constitutional right under section 21 of the constitution” on social media is extremely irresponsible. I am no saint when it comes to adhering strictly to the regulations but fomenting civil disobedience is in no one’s interest.

I do not agree with lockdown in its present form and there is little or no scientific basis for the degree of lockdown being imposed on South Africans. However, limiting movement to within the 5km or less radius for most of us where we exercise and shop is absolutely critical to identify hot-spots of Covid transmission. Only economic activity should extend beyond this radius.

Sanparks is doing the correct thing by preventing us from walking on the Mountain because paths are narrow, dogs abound that touch each other and other people and social distancing is all but impossible. But more than this people connect with each other on Table Mountain from all over Cape Town and it will be very difficult to detect the origin of a large outbreak of the virus i.e. a hotspot.

In the face of an existential threat, Sanparks has as much right to stop us walking on the Mountain as what it has to stop us walking around or even getting out of our vehicles in the Kruger park where being snacked on by a lion or charged by a buffalo only exposes yourself to this risk.
Your rights under section 21 does not justify you increasing the risk of death or disability to the people around you and the medical staff that will have to treat you and those you infect or get infected by.

The corona virus is much more dangerous that people think as demonstrated what happened at St Augustine’s hospital where the first hotspot occurred in South Africa resulting in the closing of the hospital.

https://www.medicalbrief.co.za/archives ... -released/

“The investigation found that between 9 March and 30 April 2020, there were 119 confirmed cases identified at St Augustine’s Hospital (39 patients and 80 staff). Fifteen of the 39 patients died (case fatality rate 38.5%).”
40% of the patients died. Let that sink in please.

Then bear in mind an infected health care worker whether ill or not cannot treat you until 14 days have elapsed! I personally am on level 3 call which means that when the doctors skilled and trained in treating infections and managing ICU patients and ventilators are all in isolation or sick, then I have to come and treat you. And trust me you do not want me to. Last time I managed an anaesthetic or anything like a ventilator was some 35 years ago.

I also happen to be 61 and at some risk. Everyone that knows me thinks that I am super-fit and physically half my age. But just 4 years ago I developed a pneuomonia and a collapsed lung out of the blue and I am not keen to test myself against this virus.

I know two climbing mates who have developed adult onset asthma who are at significant risk and who may need expert treatment that I cannot provide should they succumb.

So, do what must you do but at least keep it yourself and please do not brag about walking around Table Mountain or going climbing or to your holiday house so as to influence others to do the same.

Every medical doctor I talk to is 100% convinced that a devastating tsunami of infections, illness and death is going strike this country in the next 60 days. At this time there are already 7 Covid patients at Kingsbury hospital where I practice. These patients are business owners, employers, fathers, mothers, brothers and sisters that may be old and unhealthy or not. Some will die sooner than necessary without ever seeing a family member again. And some may infect a doctor or a nurse who may be old or unhealthy that may also die sooner than necessary.

By all means be productive so you can provide for yourself and your family, exercise responsibly near where you live but other than that stay the fuck home please at least until we better understand the virus or rather until the risk decreases.
Last edited by SNORT on Thu May 21, 2020 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Thu May 21, 2020 10:43 am

https://www.medicalbrief.co.za/archives ... -november/

No ICU beds by JUNE!!! That's less than 2 weeks away.

Doctors are going to have to decide if your granny dies or not. If you are on kidney dialysis your chances of survival will be close to zero. Type 1 diabetes also. With all the best facilities available St Augustine's had just short of 40% of the patients die that contracted Covid 19 there. Bear in mind that these patients were not admitted for Covid19 but contracted the virus while in hospital and then died.

Once the ICU beds are used up the death rate for anyone that is old or ill could approach 100%

Type 1 diabetes has a very high prevalence in South Africa and targets certain ethnic groups and is up to 4%. It affects young people under age 30 that are otherwise healthy. These people are at very high risk from Covid 19.

All diabetes affects 12.8% of adults in South Africa - also at hugely increased risk because of obesity and associated heart and vascular disease .

At this stage HIV has fortunately not been shown to be a significant risk factor....

When this virus really hits South Africa it will not suprise me if our overall death rate approaches 5% of the population. Do the math that's like 3million and mainly because or medical systems won't cope.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Sat May 23, 2020 1:37 pm

I recevied this message in a PM a day ago,,, I have the senders permission to post this anonymously.


Hi Snort,

I'm sending you a private message of support in response to your latest forum post on Covid-19.

My partner and I are members at CityRock Joburg. We are in our early 30's and took up climbing two years ago. We were climbing at the gym about 3 times a week and outside as much as possible for working professionals.

In middle March both of us contracted Covid-19 (brought in from the UK by someone at her office). Despite the fact that we were young, healthy and fit, we got very sick. Although we did not realise it at the time, it is likely that we had the 'silent hypoxia' which seems to be a characteristic of the virus. It felt similar to being at high altitude, with added fever, body aches and the like.

Two months later we are still experiencing symptoms like shortness of breath, fatigue and chest pains and have been to see our doctor (Martin Connel) regarding lingering symptoms. We have about 70% of our normal lung flow rate, swollen sinuses, constant fatigue etc. It remains to be seen whether we have sustained permanent damage to our lungs or hearts.

The point being this: climbers, even if they are young and fit as we were, are by no means invulnerable to this virus. It can and will do serious damage to your body and your long term ability to climb. Climbers therefore have selfish reasons not to expose themselves to the virus. Coupled with the altruistic reasons for not risking the spread of the virus to other, more vulnerable people, this should be reason enough for all climbers to stay home and make the right decisions.

The management and owners of CityRock have acted responsibly and we commend you for that. You have our continued support through this time. In addition, we would be willing to increase our membership fees in due course, to keep the gym open.

Kind regards,

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by robertbreyer » Sun May 24, 2020 4:54 pm

** I am exercising my constitutional right to free speech and hereby disagree 100%**
The Sea Point promenade is packed beyond belief. Chapmans Peak Drive is a shit-show. Constantia Green Belt a Zoo.
This is social distancing gone all wrong.
TMNP on the other hand is 221 km2, with probably more than 100km of hiking paths.
Plenty big enough to practice social distancing a lot more safely than squeezing everyone into a few permitted areas.
I get the flatten the curve part about not overwhelming our medical infrastructure. But we are all going to get this virus, eventually.
So I would rather abide by sensible rules than abide by a bunch of arbitrary Stasi regulations like no smoking, drinking,selling only winter clothing, or exercising from 6 to 9 am.
- Robert the CityROCK co-owner.
Last edited by robertbreyer on Mon May 25, 2020 9:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by robertbreyer » Sun May 24, 2020 5:12 pm

One more comment here.
Francois Venter is one of our CityROCK Johannesburg customers and an epidemiologist.
Covid-19: Another top scientist says experts are being sidelined
https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News ... d-20200524

"We uphold the right to academic freedom of speech, and call on the South African government to engage openly with alternate views, and for all of us to urgently work towards constructive solutions regarding policy, in the interests of the country," the group said.
Venter, who is the deputy executive director of the Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute, told News24 the government did not ask the MAC's scientists for advice on some of the regulations. He serves on the MAC alongside Gray and Professor Salim Abdool Karim, the chairperson.
He said there was frustration among some scientists as "some of the best scientists aren't actually being asked [about] their debate [among themselves], their opinions or... being taken seriously".
"The bottom line is, I think, we all supported a science and epidemiological approach, we're just not sure who is providing that advice at this point because it's not the main MAC."
Venter added some of the issues the MAC provided advice on were around mask wearing and ICU protocols, adding "amazing work" had been done by the team.
"But it certainly wasn't advice on regulations and it certainly wasn't advice on which services to withhold... how to shut down the health system or with lockdown mechanisms."

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Sun May 24, 2020 5:54 pm

I chose my words carefully.

Do what you must do but keep it to yourself if you are flaunting the regulations.

Secondly Sanparks did not make the regulations but the rangers have the unenviable task of trying to enforce it.

What's happening on the seapoint promenade is a different thing altogether as is the Petermaritzburg CBD and elsewhere.

And I do not agree with the lockdown in its present form as I already stated.

Whether or not I am destined to get infected, for me later is better than sooner.

What is important for some time to come is to control outbreaks irrespective of whether we are all going to get it or not.

In that regard is is worth consideringhow Germany has dealt with the virus, and I quote their minister of Health.
In Germany, we have succeeded in slowing the spread of the virus because the vast majority of citizens want to cooperate, out of a sense of responsibility for themselves and others. But to maintain this success, the government must complement timely information about the virus with open public debate and a roadmap for recovery.
We well know that in SA we started well with our lockdown but now there is widespread dissatisfaction regarding our government as it relates to the second sentence. Lets hear what CR says tonight. But as far as the first of his sentences goes it will be a catastrophe in SA if the "vast majority of citizens do not cooperate" and excercise their section 21 rights indiscriminitely and foment civil disobedience simply because they disagree with a regulation.

Referring back to the German experience, they are concentrating on testing up to a million a day. SA does not have anywhere near that capacity and that is specifically to identify a hot spot and so control it. Lockdown is still being done in hotspots in the vast majority of Countries and cities in the world even now and "unnecessary" travel is still not advocated.


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/ ... MTQ5A7BzRw

So my message and advice is still. Limit your travel and contacts. Keep socially distant. And if you choose to exercise your right to move freely wherever you feel like irrespective of the regulations, the law or whatever, I think it best to keep it to yourself.

And do whatever you can to get our economy going.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by RedSegull » Sun May 24, 2020 8:03 pm

I think an additional point about TMNP are rescues. TB has so many rescues a year, if you open the trails again you will most likely have some rescues. Considering that many people who test positive don't have symptoms, you are adding additional risk to the rescue team. They won't know if one has covid19 or not.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by mokganjetsi » Mon May 25, 2020 8:53 am

Thanks Snort for this clear and sobering thread. Given the relatively low mortality risk at younger ages, it seems to me that there's a risk younger people will not take Covid-19 seriously enough. This is no flu! I'm very supportive of the continued easing of lockdown restrictions, and in that our civil responsibility to maintain personal distancing and good hygiene, increases.

I spent some time this weekend on my mountainbike and the combo of the 6-to-9 exercise times as well as limited trails resulted in heavy congestion on the open roads and routes around the southern burbs. At this stage it's my opinion that spreading people (time and location wise) will achieve more good than harm, as many people do not adhere to the 5km radius in any case. But I do agree that whatever you do, take your responsibility very seriously and keep any civil disobedience private.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Mon May 25, 2020 9:31 am

Yes the 6 to 9 is absurd, more than absurd. If and when we open CityROCK we will probably stagger climbing and increase our opening hours, not decrease them!.

Read what Peter Hein has to say.
“The handling of the Covid-19 crisis in the UK is the most serious science policy failure in a generation.”

If South Africa is looking for examples on how to manage the incredibly complex issues of getting life and the economy back up and running again, don’t follow Britain – except mostly for what not to do.

Instead, for leadership try New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern or Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen, and for countries, try South Korea or Germany.
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinion ... FirstThing

By any measure the fact that SA locked down when it did and hard was the correct thing to do given on the one hand our entitled ivory tower welathy elite who live in Karenville on the one hand and the poverty stricken crushed together town-ship dwellers on the other.

Some of the details such as the 6-9 thing that evey Karen is bleating about is ridiculous but not the lockdown itself.

The real issue now is that we do not and will not have the resources of the more successful countries he mentions especially with regards to ourbreaks and testing. But still it has given us time to sort out our shit as best we can.

Remains to be seen what happens on the Cape Peninsula in the next month. I doubt it is going to be a happy ending and I am an incessant optimist.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by mokganjetsi » Mon May 25, 2020 9:41 am

SNORT wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 9:31 am
Remains to be seen what happens on the Cape Peninsula in the next month.
Yup I think June will be defining. I did a brief analysis of the hospitalisation, ICU and mortality rates based on the Spanish antibody testing data (released mid-May). Still checking the (very simple) analysis for errors but for now the age-rated numbers are very encouraging from a mortality perspective given South Africa's age demographics. How it plays out in Cape Town might be very different however given how large a component of our 70+ year old population is wealthy and concentrated in the nice burbs.

Overall I'm hoping June will prove that our current estimates are overly conservative and I'm generally quite risk averse (don't like the ring of pessimist :wink: )

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Mon May 25, 2020 12:49 pm

My inbox today. A whole private medical facility has been closed....


So whether we like it or not and this has nothing to do with goverment regulations a whole hospital has closed down. There are only so many in CPT.
Individuals are bandying around the fact that our ICU beds and hospitals are nowhere near capacity and so on. But I now know of 4 that have been shut down around the country.

Building up capacity to treat people and not just Covid patients is a huge challenge when whole clinics and hospitals close down..
Dear Valued Referrer,


URGENT: Cape Town Medi-Clinic update


On 24 May we received a communication from Cape Town Mediclinic advising of the temporary closure of the main hospital building following an outbreak in Mediclinic staff member infections with COVID-19. As a consequence:

“For the duration of the temporary closure to new admissions, doctors can continue to consult with patients but general radiology services will not be available. These services will however remain operational for the Emergency Centre as well as the limited number of patients currently admitted to the hospital. The mobile testing centre will continue to provide a service to those requiring testing.”

Following the above directive from Mediclinic Cape Town:
• No COVID positive Morton staff
By following a stringent staff monitoring program and PPE guidelines since the start of the pandemic, we can confirm that no Morton & Partners staff based at Cape Town Mediclinic has tested positive for COVID-19.
• Patients will be rebooked at nearest venue
We have sufficient capacity across the Morton network to accommodate CTMC patient overflow and our administrative team at the branch will rebook all patients at the nearest facility (mainly Christiaan Barnard Memorial Hospital for convenience or Life Vincent Pallotti Hospital). In order to manage additional patient flow and ensure continued safety, please call ahead to schedule any new patient exams, even xrays (which are normally not booked)

To contact the branches directly, please visit our website for contact details.
https://morton.co.za/branches/
• Submit your radiology request form via email
We encourage further social distancing by using our electronic request form.
Follow the below link for more information about how you can use our digital forms to send patients for imaging procedures.
https://morton.co.za/i-need-a-request-form/

We understand Mediclinic’s drastic decision to curb the spread of the virus among their staff and allied healthcare professionals and will communicate re-opening dates once the period of containment, cleaning and disinfection has passed.

We want to assure you that we will continue to deliver a high-quality imaging service amidst these uncertain times and appreciate your continued support.

Kind regards
Dr Clive Sperryn

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Mon May 25, 2020 1:12 pm

I got some PM's enquiring what Karen means and Karenville (my word invention aka Bishops Court and Constantia and Atlantic Seaboard etc). It's the kind of person that will shit on a waitron if they bring plastic straws with a cold-drink but every morning will buy a take-away latte in a throw away cup and have bought water in plastic the rest of the day.

A Karen is a kind of person who is unhappy when little things don’t go their way. They are a, “Can I speak to your manager?” kind of gal. The bitchy soccer mom of her friend group that nobody likes.
“Do you see her over there? She’s such a Karen.”

“Hi! You put meat on my son’s turkey sandwich, when he is STRICTLY VEGETARIAN. If you know what’s good for you, you’ll direct your manager over to me right away.”
#karen#housewife#soccermom

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by justin » Fri May 29, 2020 3:11 pm

So in theory, you can go climbing - but if the climbing area is situated in a park that is closed, then you may not.
The church thing blows my mind, but anyway :hapban
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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Fri May 29, 2020 4:18 pm

The Church thing is really just noise. Ignore it. Anyone that goes to church or any gathering is just plain dumb. What this amounts to is that when it comes to church the regulations are treating us like adults but when it comes to everything else, like children. It should be the other way round given the disastrous infection rates in churches around the world.

Allowing churches or any religious place of worship to operate does not mean that people have to or should go. Surely. If they do then Darwin will have his day.

I wrote to Herscell school where Lucy attends and i made it quite clear than any religious instruction or gathering is not "necessary" and no child should be forced to attend anything like that at all. If they do they and the parents must sign consent.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by zoed » Sun May 31, 2020 8:43 am

Looks like "hiking" will be permitted under level 3, and National Parks will be reopening:

Hiking will be allowed in National Parks under the terms of level 3 of the national lockdown as announced by the Minister of Tourism Mmamoloko Kubayi-Ngubane on Saturday 30 May.

https://www.capetownetc.com/news/hiking ... gulations/

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by robertbreyer » Sun May 31, 2020 12:17 pm

False alarm. Hiking allowed, but National Parks, Provincial Parks and beaches remain closed. Also, leisure travel not permitted. This is like the middle ages where every Minister has his own little fiefdom. So as of tomorrow we can hike to and from work. Yippee!

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by Thermophage » Sun May 31, 2020 12:37 pm

loool....fml, you can go hike where then? The Companies Gardens? geezuz!

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by mokganjetsi » Sun May 31, 2020 5:58 pm

Is this a June's Fool joke then? ""Open access parks namely Golden Gate National Park [in the Free State] and Table Mountain National Park [in the Western Cape] with the exception of Boulders Beach and Cape Point will allow access to visitors from 1 June 2020," SANParks said in a statement late on Sunday afternoon."

Source: https://www.businessinsider.co.za/trave ... 0939996302

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by zoed » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:17 am

Table Mountain National Park open from 1st June.
Statement by SANParks made last night:

Media Release: Not all national parks will open tomorrow
31 May 2020

SANParks would like to announce that only its open-access national parks namely Golden Gate Highlands-, parts of Garden Route- and Table Mountain National Park with the exception of Boulders Beach and Cape Point will allow access to visitors from Monday, 1 June 2020.

The Minister of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries will release a statement in due course regarding the opening of the other parks.

https://www.sanparks.org/about/news/?id=58067

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by robertbreyer » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:39 am


SNORT
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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:36 am

So this disease that is insignificant overall in the sense it is supposed to kill only the old, the sick and the fat has killed 4 staff at Tygerberg out of 150 infected.

Seeing as they are working none would have been particularly old or sick. If they were then why are they not being protected.

So that's over 2.5% of people who are not supposed to die.

2.5% of SA population is almost 2million.


Do the math.....

Am I missing something?

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by Chris F » Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:08 pm

A tragic loss, are there issues with inadequate medical PPE in SA as well?

I'd like to hope that they succumbed due to excessive viral load due to their work circumstance, and that a "healthy" person in a normal every day situation would not be subject to the same loading, and therefore would not become as ill, and therefore have a better chance of recovery.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by Garron » Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:40 am

Hi Snort,

You forgot that it is projected that only 60% of us well get it. So my math brings the total to less then a million. It is more complex than that though so the amount should be significantly less than 1 million. It will most likely only be that percentage in the worse effected areas so you may be able to expect a less than 1% loss in Cape Town and lower elsewhere. I don't feel like doing a better estimate at the moment I'll leave that to someone else that has better info and better math skills. However to put those figures into something that I understand means that you are likely to know at least one person that will die from this (for people living in Cape Town).

Sad figures, please practice social distancing when out on the mountains.

Garron

PS. I had a quick look at other places and it looks like Cape Town will probably have around 12,000 deaths (with very large uncertainty bars)
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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:03 pm

Ok from what I can see in Cecilia forest and Chapmans peak about 50% of people do not give a fuck about wearing masks or keeping socially distant.

That probably means you are safer climbing in a gym where protocols will be enforced than if you trust people to their own devices.

Our government is 100% correct in treating us as children to date.

Tomorrow I am going to lay a formal complaint with the Wynberg police that they are not doing their duty and enforcing, at the very least, people wearing masks and keeping their distance in Cecilia. I live right here and cannot walk across the road to walk safely.

They are not just adding to the risk of infection but also adding to the risk the Cecilia will be closed like Lions head was. And I hope the authorities do if people are so careless.

With Lockdown people are flocking in droves to walk around here that never bothered before. It was so bad that Margaret and I rather went cycling on Chapmans where we passed one of my anaesthetists today cycling who told me to stay the fuck away from him given is proximity to Covid19 infected patients.

It does not matter how many people die altogether; if we do not comply with the very simple regulation of wearing a mask we are probably criminally liable of murder.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by rocklooney » Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:24 pm

SNORT wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:03 pm

Tomorrow I am going to lay a formal complaint with the Wynberg police ......
While you're about it, ask them to send a message to the Honeydew Police Station here in Joburg which is 2 k's from Zandspruit. I drove past there four times today. Thousand of people, practicing business as usual. Trading, congregating, socializing, commuting and generally sitting around. One or two masks here and there. One cop van trundling down Beyers Naude Drive, pretty much unfazed. This whole thing is a big fat joke. They don't have the capacity to manage traffic properly never mind lock down a nation.

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by McJagger » Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:40 am

SNORT wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:03 pm

That probably means you are safer climbing in a gym where protocols will be enforced than if you trust people to their own devices.

Our government is 100% correct in treating us as children to date.

It does not matter how many people die altogether; if we do not comply with the very simple regulation of wearing a mask we are probably criminally liable of murder.
Gyms always have the best protocols like using two looking carabiners on the Auto Belay.

Also talking about Murder you care to share your views on the BLM marches in Relation to Covid-19.

You seam to have all the answers as to how everyone should conduct themselves...

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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by mokganjetsi » Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:59 am

McJagger wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:40 am
Also talking about Murder you care to share your views on the BLM marches in Relation to Covid-19.
I'll give you my view. BLM is in response to systemic racism and centuries of injustice. Mostly young people are protesting, and they are protesting for their very lives and dignity. When people protest oppression and injustice it is often in defiance of bullets, tanks, and now of Covid-19.

A fraction of the protestors are violent and it is definitely regrettable that looting, violence, and murder has happened (violent protest is illegitimate imho). None of that however invalidates that in 2020 black people still have to be fearful on account of their skin color; still have to tolerate the veneration of slave traders; still have to live with stigma and are still more prone to be the subject to excessive violence and murder by the authorities (be that George Floyd or Collins Khoza). BLM and the majority (of largely peaceful) protests are entirely legitimate and necessary. I also want to draw attention to my friend's picture below - masks, social distancing etc; probably better behaved than most people in Newlands forest this weekend. Btw, the person in front with the shades is Lynn Hill :salut: )

Please think carefully about how you relate to the pernicious injustice of racism and how you want to juxtapose that to Covid-19. Treat each issue on its own merits.
BLM Christine.jpg
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SNORT
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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:28 am

BLM is very much a matter of importance in the Covid19 crisis as the vast majority of people in South Africa are black and victims of centuries of social injustice that includes access to health care. The very fact that South Africa may be spared the worst of Covid overall is because of the youthfullness of our black population but the jury is still out on that because of the high proportion of malnutrition (that includes obesity) TB HIV and other chronic diseases - of the highest in the world.

Our infant mortality rate amongst blacks has improved dramatically over the last 20 years but is still not exactly stellar. So black infants are at very high risk of Covid19 and death compared to whites.

So heres the rub: one of the main reasons our black population is so relatively young is because they have not had the nutrition, the education and the health facilities that whites have had and in this Covid19 epidemic it is even more so. The State hospitals are filling up fast!

So if you consider black lives to matter you should make damn sure you wear your mask, and avoid getting the virus yourself and passing it on to a black person and especially to one that lives in a township that would include your gardener and house keeper.

Also the vast majority of health care workers in SA are black. They are at enormous risk too.

As for protests, well they seem to work very well. Destroying property is abhorrent and criminal and amounts to treason and like lockdown denies people to access of livelihoods and resources in my opinion.

However history will probably show that unless one does that nobody listens. The most revered statesman in the world our very own Nelson Mandela was jailed for 27 years for planning attacks on infrastructure.

I do not support it but understand it. As the saying goes depending on who wins one is either a freedom fighter or a terrorist.

SNORT
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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by SNORT » Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:01 am

you seem to have all the answers as to how everyone should conduct themselves...
Jagger I do not have all the answers. I have an opinion which I formulate on logic based on scientific evidence.

We are being told by some number crunching actuaries that Lockdown is going to kill 29 times more people that Covid19. I simply don't buy that given the lack of scientific evidence as it relates to South Africa. All of a sudden a small bunch of actuaries (PANDA) in just 2 months have become the experts with all the answers with access to all the scientific data and all the demographic and epidemiological data to substantiate their assessment. I am not saying they are definitely wrong. I am saying that no government should formulate policy on their assessment alone.

So here is some real evidence: We have Sweden a very "obedient" and caring society with minimal lockdown running at a 10% death rate of infected people, Belguim with strict lockdown with 18% death rate and the rest of the world at around 5% death rate.

Authoritarian countries and countries with subservient populations like China are getting their death rates right down but only because they are decreasing their infection rate by preventing spread. Also compared to SA their population where the outbreaks occurred is relatively healthy and young and so on.

Our infection rate is going stratospheric!

We are not prevening spread. And civil disobedience and carelessness is the cause!

Bear in mind that as a medical doctor and Orthopaedic surgeon I had to wear a mask for what collectively amounts to several years while doing surgery. I had to wear a mask because it works to prevent spread of infection and I would not be allowed to do surgery without it.



So it is not my opinion as to whether I should wear a mask in doing surgery or whether we should wear masks when out of our homes at the moment.
Everyone already has the answers as to how we should conduct ourselves. Our government is taking guidance mainly from the WHO whose authority on epidemics is the best in the world. Of that there is no doubt. If you cannot or will not wear a mask and keep social distancing and so on then do not go out. I mean WTF.

Best evidence makes it an imperative!

Any business that opens including if we were to open CityROCK is obliged to abide with the regulations. If and when we open you will wear a mask or not come in. Your activity will be regulated within the regulations and so on. We locked downed CityROCK even before government locked us down and will only open CityROCK if we can manage the risks to our staff and customers well.

How then is it OK to have different rules when walking in Cecilia forest or in the streets?

mokganjetsi
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Re: Covid. Sanparks Sec 21 and the law

Post by mokganjetsi » Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:55 pm

SNORT wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:01 am
We are being told by some number crunching actuaries that Lockdown is going to kill 29 times more people that Covid19. I simply don't buy that given the lack of scientific evidence as it relates to South Africa. All of a sudden a small bunch of actuaries (PANDA) in just 2 months have become the experts with all the answers with access to all the scientific data and all the demographic and epidemiological data to substantiate their assessment.
The Actuarial Society's Healthcare Modelling team are not happy with PANDA and the way they have gone about things. One of the team, an esteemed academic, called their work "at best not well informed; at worst pseudo-science". They have been taken to task for speaking to the press before submitting their paper for proper peer review, but clearly PANDA have their own agenda and is running with it. Just saying their professional standing in this is not generally supported as being authoritative, although I do see the merits in trying to show that lockdown has massive 2nd and 3rd round costs.

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