Corona Petition

For the posting and discussion of Access Issues and Closures for Areas around South Africa.
Post Reply
User avatar
Neil
Posts: 177
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2006 11:02 am
Real Name: Neil Margetts
Location: Johannesburg
Contact:

Corona Petition

Post by Neil » Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:09 pm

Hi Guys

See the link below which is an opportunity to sign a petition to be allowed to get outside to do exercise, such as is allowed in Germany, Colorado and many other places. I feel if this is done responsibly it would help with everybody mental health and improve our immunity. I have heard that it is very likely that over a few years sometime or other most of us will get it and recover like most other flu infections, perhaps abetter and more constructive angle is to emphasize people to work on their immunity by being more active, eating better and reduce other factors which will put them at risk of dying or being very ill if they get infected.

https://www.change.org/p/national-gover ... n-gb%3Av17

If the link does not automatically load, then copy and paste into your web browser to open.

Keep safe and positive

Neil

User avatar
XMod
Posts: 949
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:38 pm
Real Name: Greg Hart

Re: Corona Petition

Post by XMod » Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:00 pm

Heartily agree Neil! Statistically so far this thing is a damp squib. Less than 0.05% of the population recorded as being infected - likely the actual figure is massively higher but people don't feel symptoms much if at all. Less than one in a million people have died - notably every single death has involved some other very serious underlying illness - not one single death has been caused solely by covid alone in South Africa.

World deaths so far this year show Cancer to be 200 times more deadly and the common flu to be almost ten times as deadly as covid - Yet we have shut down the entire world because of it? We should ALL sue the pants off our governments and the health authorities for destroying our society and livelihoods and sinking the planet into the worst depression possibly ever in recorded history (which likely would have happened anyway - but I digress).
world deaths.jpg
world deaths.jpg (66 KiB) Viewed 2738 times

User avatar
justin
Posts: 3892
Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2005 8:31 am
Real Name: Justin Lawson
Location: Montagu/Cape Town
Contact:

Re: Corona Petition

Post by justin » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:09 am

A little different in the USA

Interesting article

'Worse, the act of surfing has largely been demonised, even by people within our own community.

Public shaming and tattle-tale finger-pointing are becoming commonplace, and it's all being done in the name of moral superiority—judgment gleefully doled out by “quarantine-sensitive” joggers, cyclists, and golfers, as well as comorbidity-laden gluttons on their way to patronise “essential businesses” such as liquor stores and fast food drive-thrus. '

Hypocrisy of Surf Bans, Public Shaming, and a Dip Into Civil Disobedience
Climb ZA - Administrator
justin@climbing.co.za

mokganjetsi
Posts: 1756
Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 12:32 pm
Real Name: Willem Boshoff
Location: Cape Town

Re: Corona Petition

Post by mokganjetsi » Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:05 pm

XMod wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:00 pm
Statistically so far this thing is a damp squib. Less than 0.05% of the population recorded as being infected
That's an irrelevant comparison and conclusion. That's NOT how pandemics should be assessed. Italy actually ran out of hospital space and ventilators. So did the UK. Here it will be carnage. 50 years from now we might look back at this time and the biggest feature was not the Coronavirus or economic collapse; it was how the internet empowered millions of laypeople to spread their uninformed views and drone-out out actual expert opinion; falsehoods and fakery eroding society's wellbeing.

X-Mod, please don't take my comment too personally - I see this stuff everywhere. And of course the economic impact is a massive concern. But just to make a simplistic comparison: if the Coronavirus has an infection death-rate of 1% (current best estimate) and an annual no-intervention infection rate of 50%; given its global reach we would have seen 300+-million deaths in the first year or two if we did nothing. The number of deaths would probably have been far higher as the collapse of medical care would see that 1% death rate escalate and there will be an increase in deaths from other conditions as well due to lack of medical care.

I do leave scope for disagreement - like Sweden's experts assessed the situation and decided social distancing is the best measure. Time will tell. For now, nobody can take an arrogant position trying to lecture everyone else how wrong any course of action is. Personally I feel a risk-averse approach is well warranted until we have enough quality data to understand the impact of this pandemic. Until then the best we can do is to play our part and help others through this.

Chris F
Posts: 816
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 1:45 pm
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland

Re: Corona Petition

Post by Chris F » Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:17 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52242856

Some medical workers who died in the UK so far, many in the "not at risk" category. Viral load is not something to be underestimated when it comes to infection.

It's yet to be seen if Sweden's approach is the correct one. Compared to their Scandanavian neighbours their death toll is considerably higher.

rocklooney
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:22 am
Real Name: Patrick Fraser

Re: Corona Petition

Post by rocklooney » Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:35 pm


Chris F
Posts: 816
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 1:45 pm
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland

Re: Corona Petition

Post by Chris F » Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:58 pm

Yep, there are many experts our there, who is right, only time will tell.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... own-europe

An "expert" over the water is suggesting we drink bleach :roll:

User avatar
XMod
Posts: 949
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:38 pm
Real Name: Greg Hart

Re: Corona Petition

Post by XMod » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:15 pm

Firstly Mok you are misstating the death rate in Sweden - over the whole population it 0.015% at the highest. Still well below the death rate for the common flu and utterly insignificant compared to Cancer which is still the worlds highest killer.

My objections stem from the overhanded measures been taken locally that are having devastating effects on our society. Please note I do NOT advocate taking no precautions whatsoever and simply letting the thing run rife. What I am advocating is an end to the lock-down and a period of mask wearing for the virus to spread in micro-doses - which is the best case scenario for development of herd immunity and the end to the epidemic, during this time those of highest risk could be isolated (the old and compromised). Our lockdown has simply forestalled the onset of this thing and will not diminish the total number of deaths. Corona viruses have been around longer than mankind and their nasty will be with us for centuries to come. What we are going to be saddled with now that our government has gone this draconian route is a never ending series of limitations on personal freedoms and civil rights that they will impose whenever they please - not a good place to be at all.

I say wear a mask but there is evidence to suggest that this might not make a difference. Viruses are immobile and require attachment to a bacteria to be moved around, they are also sensitive to the environment and usually require protection from the elements in order to survive, this is usually in the form of immersion in a dense fat like collagen. If exposed to sunlight or oxygen they die very quickly - this information was all made very clear during the swine flu and SARS scares. So it appears that maybe the mask thing is another load of bull??

Consider also that being confined indoors, coupled with stress (uncertainty about the future) is extremely damaging to your immune system. Also the best cure for respiratory disease is to get outdoors and exercise in clean air. Regular exposure to sunlight is also vital to your health - So thank goodness we are being let out of our house arrest - sort of.... Your best defense against this nasty is a healthy strong immune system.

One last thought is that the USA is spending several trillion on bailing out banks - a figure that is 1000 times larger than what they have spent on cancer research in the last 40 years!! This is unbelievable considering cancer is 200 times more deadly than covid! Dont get sucked in by the fear these assholes are peddling - make no mistake this is about controlling you - NOT protecting you!

User avatar
XMod
Posts: 949
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:38 pm
Real Name: Greg Hart

Re: Corona Petition

Post by XMod » Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:21 pm

Yes Chris F - some of the health workers have succumbed - however these two girls also had serious underlying health conditions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-hampshire-52409765
I was referring to our local situation only. However at this stage it is fairly safe to say that the chances of dying of Covid alone if you are fit is virtually zero.

You are correct very high viral doses will quickly overwhelm the body's defense systems. This is exactly why circulating tiny microdoses is the way forward for developing immunity in the population and bringing this epidemic to a close - something that will not happen under lockdown.

Any hoo - never mind me guys, I'm a right wing conspiracy dude (just wait until they want to stick smart vaccines into all of you...!) - LOL!
I'm also going f-ing nuts being stuck inside my house for so long. I self isolated for three weeks before the lockdown as I had some vague symptoms - so it has been two months for me - ENOUGH!!!!!!!

wesleywt
Posts: 78
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2010 4:04 pm
Real Name: Wesley Williams

Re: Corona Petition

Post by wesleywt » Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:24 am

You all may die. But that is a sacrifice I am wiling to make. So that I can go climb some stupid rocks. The true extent of how many people died. And it's a literal fuck ton, will not be known until we calculate the people missing from our stats. But I guess whole old age homes were the entire community are dead in their beds is not a problem. Q

Marshall1
Posts: 784
Joined: Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:38 am
Real Name: Derek Marshall
Location: Port Elizabeth
Contact:

Re: Corona Petition

Post by Marshall1 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:10 pm

Hahaha Yes Greg, can see that you have spent the whole lockdown watching dumbass donald and his stooges on YouTube.

User avatar
XMod
Posts: 949
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:38 pm
Real Name: Greg Hart

Re: Corona Petition

Post by XMod » Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:57 pm

What the f-k are you talking about Marshall? The people I have been watching are world leaders in virology and epidemiology - perhaps you ought to inform yourself further about the reality of what is going on instead of blindly believing what you are fed by ENCA and CNN?? But I guess such independent thought is above your pay grade!

And as for wally wesley - what the hell are you on about? Sounds like you have spent the entire lock down smoking bad weed son.

Stay locked in your little virtual prisons - enjoy! I'll laugh at you from the mountain slopes!

mokganjetsi
Posts: 1756
Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 12:32 pm
Real Name: Willem Boshoff
Location: Cape Town

Re: Corona Petition

Post by mokganjetsi » Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:00 am

XMod wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:15 pm
Firstly Mok you are misstating the death rate in Sweden - over the whole population it 0.015% at the highest. Still well below the death rate for the common flu and utterly insignificant compared to Cancer which is still the worlds highest killer.
I think this is the problem with using "snap-shot" data. The death rate is the number of people who died as a percentage of those infected. Only we don't know how many are infected as many people are a-symptomatic or the cause of death is noted as heart-failure whereas the virus was the underlying cause etc. Forces that pull in different directions. As of this morning, the death rate of "closed cases" i.e. the outcome of an infection is either death or recovery; is (approx) 203 000 deaths and 837 000 recoveries, i.e. one in 5 people die (20%!!!). This number is ofcourse not reflecting the real death rate as many people who get infected aren't getting tested. But the 20% number should get your attention. Via various statistical techniques and educated estimations the death rate dwindles to 1% - still 10 to 20 times higher than flu. And it will go up if medical care collapses.

Comparing the death rate to the population size or the deaths by other conditions is not correct. Deaths by cancer is, for instance, a mature number i.e. everybody who will get cancer, get's it. There's no additional spread of cancer that can be reasonably prevented by short term measures. If you want to compare the impact of Covid-19 to the flu or cancer you need to extrapolate the infection rate to a scenario where nothing is done for a year (estimated infections between 40% and 60% of the population) and apply the death rate. You do that math and then these crazy measures taken makes more sense.

Finally, it may be that we are overreacting to Covid-19 - something we can't (and won't) know for sure. I just urge people have some trust in the larger body of experts who devote themselves to understand this virus; there's a crapload of "experts" and opinionistas who spread false / unlikely / untested information out there.

Marshall1
Posts: 784
Joined: Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:38 am
Real Name: Derek Marshall
Location: Port Elizabeth
Contact:

Re: Corona Petition

Post by Marshall1 » Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:13 am

"I'll laugh at you from the mountain slopes!" "Having been on the couch for ages"

Greg, if you didn't get to the hills in the cool sweet days, how will you muster from rhetoric to action during C19? What changed for you?

I'm not saying you should not go, I agree that you should go.

Memento mori

rocklooney
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:22 am
Real Name: Patrick Fraser

Re: Corona Petition

Post by rocklooney » Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:42 am

Here's a couple of doctors talking about the situation in California. Not sure if they're as good as our experts but it's not looking good for the bull market. Use it don't use it. I guess time will tell. https://youtu.be/xfLVxx_IBLU

rocklooney
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 12:22 am
Real Name: Patrick Fraser

Re: Corona Petition

Post by rocklooney » Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:08 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/a ... s-adhanom/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/02/ch ... oft-power/

Apparently this man thought Robert Mugabe was a good candidate for WHO's "goodwill ambassador"

SNORT
Posts: 1306
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2006 8:53 am
Real Name: Charles Edelstein
Location: Cape Town

Re: Corona Petition

Post by SNORT » Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:33 pm

I disagree with the Corono petition for a number of reasons.

1. It is the privileged and the young who will benefit almost exclusively. And my experience of people in shops and elsewhere is that even professional people are piss poor at keeping social distancing.

2. In Boulder County, Colorado a very "blue area" in the USA (someone mentioned Colorado) with a population of just 360 000 relatively young, intelligent young and fit there are 25 deaths compared to RSA with 60million people at only 75 deaths. Now do the math and extrapolate that to Cape Town with 4 million people on the peninsula!. People are socially distancing there but still out and about........Not working well if you ask me.

3. Our gini co-efficient is one of the worst in the world and it will now get even worse. We had a soft landing after apartheid. Our society is extremely polarized and economic apartheid is alive and well. Everyone (almost) is now online and resentment could escalate and lead to serious civil disobedience and violence if privileged people are out an about exercising. What are people to do living in densely populated townships and even in the city? Go running on Wale street?

4. Too many people run with their dogs that touch other people and other dogs. Don't even think you can control "dog people" in this regard. Far too many people who own dogs will sooner murder someone than discipline their dog or keep it on a leash properly. Again it is a polarizing problem.

Having said all that I am indeed fortunate that I live on a huge property and am getting as much exercise and even more than before as I labour in the garden 4 or more hours a day. Hope my back holds out. Not sure if I can afford this place much longer though. I alsocycle about a 1km to provide food to the car guard Mitch at the Kirstenbosch. He lives in a small guard house with no electricity or ablutions. He smokes though which pisses me off.

Anyways seems like the rules are being relaxed soon.

And everyone be kind, be gracious. This is not a time to diss each other....

SNORT
Posts: 1306
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2006 8:53 am
Real Name: Charles Edelstein
Location: Cape Town

Re: Corona Petition

Post by SNORT » Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:46 pm

Corona in the correct context. There are 2 issues:

1. Not only is it increasing the respiratory disease burden on health care systems and society in general but because it is not endemic but rather an epidemic, the increase is exponentially incremental. So eventually it will result in double or more than double the burden on the flu treatment resources. So even though by all accounts it is just another flu virus and no better and no worse that is not the problem. It is the sudden burden increase. The reason for the lockdowns is to flatten the curve. Flu is endemic but this is not just a flu but an additional one. Also we are used to flu being endemic and society has accommodated to it. Even though corona is not worse or much worse, it is not endemic yet. It will become so within about a year. And then it is just another strain of flu. The problem is that as things stand our health and psychological systems are not geared to cope with double the amount of respiratory illnesses yet. In essence ordinary flu is bad enough and kills already way too many people. Can we cope with double this amount? Not yet! Also many flu strains have vaccines and about 50% of Americans have had them. So the effect of lockdown has to be balanced against the psychological social, economic and political impact of so doing.

2. The second issue is the impact on health care workers. I was at the forefront of HIV research as to how it impacted on doctors and nurses and presented papers on it in the early ninetees. We eventually worked out that transmission during surgery and even needle stick was rare. Ortho surgeons in a busy surgical practice stick themselves once to twice a month with bits of bone or sharp instruments. Nurses are more commonly injured with needles. In the early nineties there was almost a mutiny by doctors and nurses treating HIV. I stuck myself with a piece of bone deep into my thumb by an HIV person in 1995 and both my nieces were stuck. But It turns out that Hepatitis B from patients is still more contageous and deadly than HIV in healthcare workers.


https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/11/7/04-1038_article

There is a vaccine for HEP B though. And also for many flu strains. Hence the recommendation for people to get these vaccines now if old.

So Covid19 is very infectious and there is already evidence that it is ravaging the health care nurses and doctors and support staff. Like 18 doctors dead in Italy and that was 10 days ago. And that is the real problem. There are not going to be healthcare workers around to do the job if infections go crazy. 3 hospitals closed already in SA.

So Covid 19 is not just another flu. Rather it is an additional one that is doubling (or more) the burden disease compared to normal flu and not only targetting old and weak but also health care workers....

Damn glad I am not a physician, GP Nurse or anaesthetist right now....

User avatar
XMod
Posts: 949
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:38 pm
Real Name: Greg Hart

Re: Corona Petition

Post by XMod » Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:37 pm



User avatar
XMod
Posts: 949
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:38 pm
Real Name: Greg Hart

Re: Corona Petition

Post by XMod » Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:52 pm

Snort - I respect your superior medical knowledge and I DO UNDERSTAND the reasoning behind the lock-down - HOWEVER I do NOT believe it is the best strategy given the heinous knock -on effects the hit on our economy is starting to have (Civil unrest, increased crime, starvation, general decrease in mental health). The best way for the disease to become an endemic background illness (and hopefully evolve into a less destructive strain - typical evolutionary path) is for it circulate and for people to build immunity. This could be down without putting the elderly or infirm at risk. Just because we have seen few deaths so far does not imply that they will still not occur - we will most likely see a spike with each new decrease in alert level. Worst case scenario is that we end up in an endless oscillation between lower and higher alert levels. The lockdown only extends the period which the epidemic rages - it does not reduce the eventual impact or number of deaths (unless we hit a fat luck and the virus itself follows a life cycle independent of any measures we are taking - some indications of this are evident [even though it makes little sense!?]).

Further the latest stats of ALL areas in the world show a mortality and overall death rate FAR BELOW THAT WHICH INDICATED DRASTIC LOCKDOWN MEASURES! In other words the conditions that prescribed lockdown have NOT MATERIALISED - the lock down is completely unnecessary!

Anyway - whatever! Hopefully our dear ministers will be able to realise that going for a hike alone on a mountain far away from anyone else poses zero risk to anyone else and should therefore be allowed in the regulated exercise! Holding thumbs - I am going f-ing insane sitting in my hovel!!!!

User avatar
XMod
Posts: 949
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:38 pm
Real Name: Greg Hart

Re: Corona Petition

Post by XMod » Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:01 pm

And YEAH peace all - my apologies for nasty comments but it pisses me off when people get personal on the net instead of actually arguing the point with quoted resources. Attacking the person posting just because they hold a different opinion to you is pathetic, weak and downright nasty. If you cant contribute something concrete to the discussion then dont bother posting. The net is meant for exchanging ideas and so raising everyone's awareness in the process - it is not a pissing contest!!

SNORT
Posts: 1306
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2006 8:53 am
Real Name: Charles Edelstein
Location: Cape Town

Re: Corona Petition

Post by SNORT » Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:36 pm

Further the latest stats of ALL areas in the world show a mortality and overall death rate FAR BELOW THAT WHICH INDICATED DRASTIC LOCKDOWN MEASURES! In other words the conditions that prescribed lockdown have NOT MATERIALISED - the lock down is completely unnecessary!
XMod simply not true.... At all. 30 dead in a population of 360 000 is just huge....

Read point 2 in my previous post and Boulder County is mostly locked down now. Another 5 dead in just 24 hours or so. Got a lot of friends in that area including Kevin Smith who is the IT guy for Spyder and has been laid off. (Furloughed).
2. In Boulder County, Colorado a very "blue area" in the USA (someone mentioned Colorado) with a population of just 360 000 relatively young, intelligent young and fit there are 25 deaths compared to RSA with 60million people at only 75 deaths. Now do the math and extrapolate that to Cape Town with 4 million people on the peninsula!. People are socially distancing there but still out and about........Not working well if you ask me.
Too little too late....
Boulder county stats 27 April.JPG
Boulder county stats 27 April.JPG (33.11 KiB) Viewed 1914 times

mokganjetsi
Posts: 1756
Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2006 12:32 pm
Real Name: Willem Boshoff
Location: Cape Town

Re: Corona Petition

Post by mokganjetsi » Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:02 pm

SNORT wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:46 pm
Even though corona is not worse or much worse,
Snort, do you have links to credible sources / data to support this? From everything I've read, including the fact that flu-fatality estimates are bobbing around in a very wide range, it seems that Covid-19's overall death rate is considerably higher (5 to 10 times).

SNORT
Posts: 1306
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2006 8:53 am
Real Name: Charles Edelstein
Location: Cape Town

Re: Corona Petition

Post by SNORT » Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:59 pm

You are correct it is a lot higher...Probably 3 to 5 times higher actually. But like fly targets mostly infirm and old.

So for younger healthy people it is not much worse it seems.

AndrewV
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:40 pm
Real Name: Andrew Vermaak

Re: Corona Petition

Post by AndrewV » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:11 pm

https://lunginstitute.co.za/2020/03/04/ ... he-rest-3/

Thousands die from flu every year in SA – how does the common flu virus compare to the new coronavirus?

Zakiyah Ebrahim | Health24 |  04 Mar 2020, 11:08

Since January 2020, the outbreak of the virus which causes Covid-19, has had the world in a tizz. While it has already spread to more than 60 countries around the world, South Africa remains spared.

But should we be concerned, and is this new coronavirus more worrisome than the seasonal flu? Professor and Head of the Division of Medical Virology at the University of Stellenbosch, Wolfgang Preiser, and Professor Keertan Dheda, Head of Division of Pulmonology at the University of Cape Town, explains:

Coronavirus vs. flu: which is deadlier?

More than 3 000 people have died globally and over 88 000 have been infected with the Covid-19 virus, according to CNN.

On the other hand, influenza (commonly known as the flu) statistics paint an even bleaker picture: the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that worldwide, annual flu epidemics result in as many as five million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 deaths.

To put it in a local context, the flu kills between 6 000 to 11 000 South Africans every year, according to the National Department of Health. About 50% of those deaths are among the elderly, and about 30% in HIV-infected people.

To put this into further context, an article by the New York Times reports that the seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1% of people who become infected, whereas early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from Wuhan, China are around 2%.

However, we should be cautious to label this the “true death rate” for two reasons:

Many mild-symptom or symptom-free cases are not detected.The sudden outbreak was hard to control and contain in the beginning – although it bought the rest of the world time to prepare for the dissemination of the virus.

This means that the actual death rate could be under 2%, and similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1%, according to an editorial published in the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Is the flu more contagious than the coronavirus?

Although data from China shows that it is more contagious than influenza, we should bear in mind that at this point, the actual risk of infection isn’t any higher per se, and that it’s simply about the spread being quicker, Orly Vardeny, associate professor of medicine at the Minneapolis VA Health Care System and University of Minnesota said.

And unlike in the case of the flu, there’s no vaccine yet.

According to the New York Times, a person infected with the Covid-19 virus appears to infect 2.2 people, on average, whereas for the seasonal flu it’s 1.3. But, again, the new coronavirus figure is skewed by the way in which the disease was handled in the beginning. As it comes under control, so will this figure subsequently drop.

For now, the flu still presents a greater danger, explains Professor Preiser:

“We should be more concerned about the flu [than we are] because every year, in South Africa alone, it kills more than 11 000 people, and much of that could be prevented if people had themselves vaccinated.

“Vaccinating against flu, especially this year, means that you will potentially be less of a burden to the healthcare system, and avoid being flagged as a possible coronavirus case.”

Similarities and differences between influenza and the virus that causes Covid-19

Officials at the WHO this week sought to differentiate between the new coronavirus from influenza, with WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus explaining the following at a briefing on Tuesday:

Both the new coronavirus and seasonal flu cause respiratory disease.Both spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.However, based on current data, the new virus does not transmit as efficiently as influenza.With this new virus, it appears you have to be sick to transmit it to someone else. With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission.The Covid-19 virus causes more severe disease than seasonal flu.More people are susceptible to being infected with the new virus than the flu, and some will suffer severe disease. This is because many people have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, whereas the Covid-19 virus is new – and a virus to which no one has immunity.Globally, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected. By comparison, about 3.4% of reported Covid-19 virus cases have died.Vaccines are available for seasonal flu, but not for the new vrus. However, more than 20 vaccines are in development.Containment for the new virus is possible, but not for seasonal flu.

Who is most at risk from infection?

A recent article by Health24 notes that this new virus which causes Covid-19 is striking men and older people the hardest. Experts agree that the latter is happening because older people have immune systems that wind down as they age and therefore become less effective, making them more prone to dangerous viral strains (much like as the department of health stats show, roughly 50% of flu-related deaths in South Africa are the elderly).

And having a chronic illness – like arthritis, diabetes and heart disease – means that the body is less able to cope with infection.

On the question of why the virus is attacking men more than women, research has shown that, in China, many more men smoke than women. In fact, more than half of Chinese men smoke, compared with only around 3% of women.

Smoking activates a receptor used by the coronavirus to infect human cells, ACE-2, Dr Greg Poland, a vaccine researcher and infectious disease specialist with the Mayo Clinic, in Rochester, Minnesota said, although this is speculative at this stage.

However, Preiser weighed in and explained that if someone’s lungs are affected by smoking (in a way, a chronic illness), then that certainly increases the risk from a virus that affects the lungs as “one has ‘fewer reserves’ to fall back on when the lungs are infected and inflamed”, he said.

Dheda adds: “Smokers are at higher risk of contracting many respiratory tract infections including influenza, TB, and Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important cause of acute pneumonia.”

“There are a number of mechanisms by which cigarette smoking does this, including subverting the defensive functions of the airway lining and various types of immune defensive cells including macrophages and lymphocytes.”

Are those living with HIV and TB at a higher risk of infection?

“Anyone with underlying immunodeficiency or weakened lung defenses will be more susceptible to respiratory pathogens, including the new coronavirus,” says Dheda.

“So individuals who are HIV-infected and those with substantial post-tuberculous lung disease would be more susceptible to contracting coronavirus.”

Preiser also says that we should take into consideration that the places affected so far have far fewer HIV-positive people than we have, however, “it needs to be assumed (until proven otherwise – which is unlikely) that if you have HIV, or TB, or any other chronic illness, your risk of severe coronavirus disease is increased.”

Protecting yourself

Although there is currently no vaccine or “cure” for the new virus, there are preventative measures you can take to minimise your risk of contracting the virus:

Avoid coming into close contact with people who are ill.Wash your hands with soap and water frequently and thoroughly.Make it a habit to clean and disinfect furniture that is frequently touched.Cover your face with a tissue or your elbow when coughing or sneezing.Visit a doctor if you develop symptoms.

https://m.health24.com/Medical/Infectio ... s-20200304

Chris F
Posts: 816
Joined: Fri Sep 22, 2006 1:45 pm
Location: Aberdeen, Scotland

Re: Corona Petition

Post by Chris F » Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:57 pm

AndrewV wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:11 pm

On the question of why the virus is attacking men more than women, research has shown that, in China, many more men smoke than women. In fact, more than half of Chinese men smoke, compared with only around 3% of women.
I'm not saying who is right and who is wrong, just that there are no experts who know everything about this novel virus, and the landscape changes daily

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/27/smokers- ... -12616852/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/heal ... index.html

Post Reply